Alavés vs Villarreal Prediction & Match Analysis

Deportivo Alavés welcome Villarreal to Mendizorroza on 28 August for Matchday 3 of La Liga. Alavés have made the stronger start in terms of points, collecting four from their opening two matches, while Villarreal have drawn both of theirs.

Despite Villarreal still searching for their first league victory, their opening schedule provides useful context. They have already come through an away match against Atlético Madrid with a 2–2 draw, showing enough attacking quality and resilience to compete against one of the stronger sides in the division. Their first two league matches have produced four goals scored and four conceded.

That makes the X2 more attractive than requiring Villarreal to win at Mendizorroza. The visitors have avoided defeat in both league matches so far, and the draw gives us protection against an Alavés side that has also started well.

Alavés deserve respect. They have collected four points from six, scoring four goals and conceding only once. They have also generated 27 shots through the opening two rounds, confirming that their positive start has involved genuine attacking activity rather than simply defensive results.

Those numbers are also why we prefer Under 4.5 instead of taking a much tighter goals line. Alavés have been defensively solid, while Villarreal's ability to compete away from home gives the match a balanced profile. We can allow as many as four total goals and still cover this part of the selection.

The combination therefore gives us considerable room. Villarreal only need to avoid defeat, while the match must stay below five total goals. Scorelines such as 0–0, 0–1, 1–1, 1–2, 2–2 and even 1–3 all remain favorable.

At 1.62, the protection on both sides of the market makes this preferable to backing Villarreal outright.