Celta Vigo vs Osasuna Prediction

Celta Vigo host Osasuna at Balaídos in a rescheduled La Liga fixture. For this match, our selection is Celta Vigo or Draw (1X) + Over 1.5 total goals.

At odds of 1.70, the combination gives us protection against a draw while requiring only two goals, and there are several strong statistical arguments supporting both parts of the bet.

🔵 Celta's home advantage

Celta's 2025/26 home numbers provide an important foundation. At Balaídos, they scored 29 goals in 19 La Liga matches, an average of approximately 1.53 goals per home game. They also generated 219 shots and 83 shots on target at home.

The overall season was positive as well: Celta finished 6th in La Liga with 54 points, scoring 53 goals across the campaign.

That makes protecting Celta at home with the 1X preferable to taking unnecessary risk on a straight victory.

⚽ Last season produced eight H2H goals

The two league meetings in 2025/26 were excellent for the goal side of our selection:

Osasuna 2–3 Celta Vigo ✅ Over 1.5

Celta Vigo 1–2 Osasuna ✅ Over 1.5

That's 8 goals across only two matches, an average of 4.0 goals per game.

The first meeting was particularly open. Celta won 3–2 at El Sadar, despite having only 38.5% possession. They produced 11 shots and five shots on target, showing their ability to hurt Osasuna even away from Balaídos.

📊 The last meeting at Balaídos

Osasuna won the most recent encounter 2–1, but the underlying numbers tell an interesting story for our new selection.

Celta produced:

- 57% possession

- 18 shots

- 4 shots on target

- 1 goal

Osasuna managed only 8 attempts, yet scored twice.

Celta therefore lost despite producing more than twice as many shots.

This time, protecting Celta with 1X gives us room for a draw while their attacking volume provides support for the two-goal requirement.

🔥 Strong recent Over 1.5 H2H pattern

Looking at the recent league meetings:

Celta 1–2 Osasuna ✅

Osasuna 2–3 Celta ✅

Celta 1–0 Osasuna ❌

Osasuna 3–2 Celta ✅

Osasuna 0–3 Celta ✅

Celta 0–2 Osasuna ✅

Celta 1–2 Osasuna ✅

Over 1.5 landed in 6 of those 7 matches.

That is exactly why we prefer Over 1.5 rather than Over 2.5. We don't need another 3–2 or a highly open match; 1–1 is already enough.

🏟️ Historical strength at Balaídos

The broader historical record also strongly favors Celta when these teams meet in Vigo.

Across 40 home matches against Osasuna in all competitions, Celta have recorded:

28 wins

7 draws

5 defeats

That means Celta avoided defeat in 35 of 40 home meetings — 87.5% of the historical sample.

Recent results have been more balanced, so this shouldn't be treated as a guarantee, but it adds another argument for using Celta 1X at Balaídos.

🎯 Final Prediction

The combination fits the statistics well.

Celta scored 29 times in 19 home league games last season, finished sixth in La Liga, and historically have a very strong record against Osasuna at Balaídos.

For the goals side, the evidence is even clearer: the two meetings last season produced eight combined goals, while 6 of the last 7 league H2Hs reached Over 1.5.

We don't need Celta to win. A 1–1 draw already completes both parts of the selection.

🎯 Prediction: Celta Vigo or Draw (1X) + Over 1.5 Goals

💰 Odds: 1.70