Çorum FK gegen Eyüpspor Prognose und Spielanalyse

# Çorum FK vs Eyüpspor Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips **Prediction:** Çorum FK to Win **Odds:** 1.75 Competition: Trendyol Süper Lig Round: Matchday 4 Date: 2026-09-06 Kick-off: 17:00 (Türkiye local time) Venue: Çorum Şehir Stadium Location: Çorum, Türkiye Çorum's only home defeat masked a dominant territorial process: 75% possession, 16 shots, seven corners and 1.29 xG. Eyüpspor's only away match produced only four shots, one on target and 0.09 xG. The home-win case is therefore built on a very large process gap despite both teams entering with 0-1 split results. The venue splits are reconstructed directly from completed match reports, with only verifiable HOME/AWAY metrics included. ### Team News and Probable Lineups **Probable lineups:** Çorum FK (4-2-3-1): Felipe; Ömer Bayram/Sazdağı, Atakan Şengül, Ivan Smolčić, Andrei Borza; Berat Özdemir, Ylber Ramadani; Serdar Gürler, Sékou Diomandé, Oğulcan Gürlük; Juanmi Ramírez. Eyüpspor (4-2-3-1): Horațiu Moldovan; Ülvan, Jawad El Yamiq, Jules, Giordano; Massanga, Yao; Konrad Michalak, Costa, Bilal Boutobba; Abdullahi. These are probable, not confirmed, and use the previous league match/current match-specific preview as the baseline. **Injuries / doubts:** No additional high-confidence injury forced a change to the projected XI in the sources used. **Suspensions:** Kyziridis was listed as suspended by Starting11 and is excluded. One secondary feed presented conflicting suspension metadata, so this status should be rechecked against the official match sheet before publication. **Transfers / signings / registration:** Çorum: Penetra was reported out on loan; Şengül remains in the back line and Özdemir/Gürlük enter the revised XI. Eyüpspor: Giordano is the projected change from the previous official XI. **Lineup source note:** Starting11 Gameweek 4, with a secondary availability cross-check; checked 01/09/2026. Any new official club/competition update closer to kickoff overrides this probable XI. Çorum’s HOME loss to Kasımpaşa is one of the strongest result/process divergences in the round: 75% possession, 16 shots, seven corners and 1.29 xG, yet a 0-1 defeat after conceding in the sixth minute. Eyüpspor’s only AWAY sample at Beşiktaş was almost the mirror image: only four shots, one on target, two corners and 0.09 xG in a 0-1 loss. The home side therefore owns a very large territorial and chance-volume edge in the valid split data despite both teams sharing identical 0-0-1 away/home result lines. The split remains small, so the percentages must be interpreted as observed frequencies rather than forecast probabilities. A one-match 100% reading means one event occurred in one match; it does not mean the next fixture has a 100% chance of repeating it. The analytical priority is the interaction between result, xG, shots, SOT, possession and corners, with the overall league form used only as secondary context. ### Statistical Core Predictions-Sports-Prime | Metric | Çorum FK — HOME | Eyüpspor — AWAY | | --- | ---: | ---: | | Matches (N) | 1 | 1 | | W-D-L | 0-0-1 | 0-0-1 | | Points/game | 0.00 | 0.00 | | GF/game | 0.00 | 0.00 | | GA/game | 1.00 | 1.00 | | xG/game | 1.29 | 0.09 | | xGA/game | 0.38 | 1.28 | | Shots/game | 16.0 | 4.0 | | SOT/game | 2.0 | 1.0 | | Shots allowed/game | 6.0 | 19.0 | | SOT allowed/game | 1.0 | 5.0 | | Possession | 75.0% | 34.0% | | Corners for/game | 7.0 | 2.0 | | Corners against/game | 0.0 | 8.0 | | Total corners/game | 7.0 | 10.0 | | Over 7.5 corners | 0% | 100% | | Over 8.5 corners | 0% | 100% | | Over 9.5 corners | 0% | 100% | | First to score | 0% | 0% | | First to concede | 100% | 100% | | Scored in 1st half | 0% | 0% | | Conceded in 1st half | 100% | 100% | | Over 1.5 goals | 0% | 0% | | Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0% | | Over 3.5 goals | 0% | 0% | | BTTS | 0% | 0% | | Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | | Failed to score | 100% | 100% | **Conflict Detector.** Çorum's excellent territorial numbers did not convert into a goal, and their current finishing efficiency is a real concern. Eyüpspor's away attack was extremely weak, but a low-event match can magnify a single transition or set piece. The home-win selection is therefore process-driven, not result-confirmed. Odds/implied probability: 1.75 corresponds to a gross market-implied probability of approximately 57.1%. This is a price-derived probability, not a PSP model probability and not the same as any historical split frequency. Conclusion: the final PSP selection is **Çorum FK to Win** at **1.75**. The choice is based on the valid HOME/AWAY process, current score environment and the opponent interaction described above, while the Conflict Detector defines the main failure path. The small split samples remain descriptive rather than predictive certainties, so the market is a synthesis of process, game state and price. **Prediction:** Çorum FK to Win **Odds:** 1.75 Sources / statistical provenance: Football Nation, APWin, FootyStats, TotalCorner, Soccerzz/zerozero family, 365Scores, FootyCheck, BITFAX and other publicly accessible match reports for the 2026/27 Süper Lig. The Statistical Core uses only the exact HOME matches of the host and AWAY matches of the visitor completed before the 01/09/2026 cutoff. Overall numbers are not inserted into split columns. Where one component required for a true split average could not be verified for every match in that split, the value remains — rather than being estimated.