NFL Prognosen & Analysen

Spielanalyse

New England and Seattle meet at Lumen Field on September 9, 2026, at 5:20 PM PDT in a Super Bowl LX rematch. Both finished 14–3 in 2025. New England averaged 28.8 points and allowed 18.8 per game; Seattle averaged 28.4 and allowed an NFL-best 17.2.

The Patriots return with Drake Maye after 4,394 passing yards, 31 touchdowns and eight interceptions. A.J. Brown, Romeo Doubs and Alijah Vera-Tucker strengthen an offense that struggled badly with Seattle's pressure in the Super Bowl. Rhamondre Stevenson/TreVeyon Henderson, DeMario Douglas and Hunter Henry complete a deeper group, while Harold Landry III remains one of the main injury situations to monitor.

Seattle still has Sam Darnold, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp and Rashid Shaheed. Darnold threw for 4,048 yards and 25 touchdowns, while Smith-Njigba produced 119 catches, 1,793 yards and 10 scores. The main change is at running back: Kenneth Walker III departed and Zach Charbonnet is recovering from an ACL injury, leaving George Holani and rookie Jadarian Price with larger roles.

The Seahawks lost Riq Woolen, Coby Bryant and Boye Mafe, but Leonard Williams, Byron Murphy II, DeMarcus Lawrence, Ernest Jones IV, Devon Witherspoon, Nick Emmanwori and Julian Love keep the defensive core strong. New England counters with Christian Barmore, Milton Williams, Robert Spillane, Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis III and Kevin Byard III.

Seattle leads the series 12–9 and has won the last four meetings, including the 29–13 Super Bowl. The key matchup remains Seattle's pass rush against Maye. New England is better equipped than it was in February, but Seattle still has the more proven defense and home-field advantage.

A 2.5-point line keeps the requirement simple: Seattle needs a field-goal victory. With the stronger defensive baseline, recent head-to-head edge and Lumen Field behind them, the Seahawks remain our side.

Stadion & Kickoff

Stadion

Lumen Field — Seattle, WA

Kickoff

5:20 PM PDT

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San Francisco and Los Angeles meet at the Melbourne Cricket Ground in Australia. Both finished 12–5 in 2025, but the Rams led the NFL in scoring at roughly 30.5 points per game, compared with 25.7 for San Francisco. Los Angeles also allowed slightly fewer points, 20.4 per game against 21.8.

Matthew Stafford enters after 4,707 yards, 46 touchdowns and only eight interceptions. Puka Nacua led the league with 129 receptions, while Davante Adams scored 14 receiving touchdowns. San Francisco answers with Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Mike Evans, Christian Kirk and George Kittle. McCaffrey rushed for 1,202 yards and 10 touchdowns, while Purdy threw 20 touchdowns in only nine regular-season games.

Health matters because of the long trip. Kittle has worked back from his Achilles injury, Evans has dealt with a minor groin issue, while Nacua and Myles Garrett have also been monitored. San Francisco still has Nick Bosa and Fred Warner leading its defense, with Dre Greenlaw and Osa Odighizuwa adding strength.

The 2025 meetings produced 49 and 68 combined points: San Francisco won 26–23 before the Rams answered 42–26. Both cleared our 47.5 line. The matchup again has enough high-end skill talent to create explosive plays and red-zone opportunities on both sides.

Stafford with Nacua and Adams gives Los Angeles the stronger passing baseline, while Purdy, McCaffrey and the reinforced 49ers receiving group provide enough firepower to answer. With the broader market around 48.5, Over 47.5 gives us an extra point of protection.

Stadion & Kickoff

Stadion

Melbourne Cricket Ground — Melbourne

Kickoff

TBA

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Chicago and Carolina meet at Bank of America Stadium on September 13 at 1:00 PM ET. The Bears finished 11–6 and averaged 25.9 points per game in 2025, while Carolina went 8–9 and averaged 18.3. Defensively, Chicago allowed 24.4 per game and Carolina 22.4.

Caleb Williams returns with Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, Cole Kmet, Colston Loveland and D'Andre Swift. Carolina continues to build around Bryce Young, Tetairoa McMillan, Jalen Coker, Xavier Legette and Chuba Hubbard, with Darren Waller adding another target.

Carolina strengthened its defense with Jaelan Phillips and Devin Lloyd, but several situations need monitoring, including Hubbard, Derrick Brown and the offensive line. Ikem Ekwonu has been recovering from a ruptured patellar tendon and Taylor Moton is expected to miss regular-season time. Chicago is also monitoring several players, but its offensive structure enters Week 1 with more continuity.

Chicago already showed it can score consistently, while its 24.4 points allowed per game leaves room for Carolina to contribute at home. Young has more weapons than a year ago, and Chicago's offense is capable of carrying a large share of the total if the Panthers struggle defensively.

The market moved from roughly 44.5–45.5 to 47.5, reflecting higher scoring expectations. We still see enough paths to 48 points: Chicago has the stronger established offense, while Carolina has improved the supporting cast around Young.

Stadion & Kickoff

Stadion

Bank of America Stadium — Charlotte, NC

Kickoff

1:00 PM ET

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Cincinnati hosts Tampa Bay at Paycor Stadium on September 13 at 1:00 PM EDT. The Bengals finished 6–11 in an injury-hit 2025, but Joe Burrow's return changes the outlook. In limited action he threw 17 touchdowns against five interceptions with a 100.7 passer rating.

Burrow again has Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Chase produced 125 receptions, 1,412 yards and eight touchdowns, while Chase Brown gives Cincinnati another useful option out of the backfield. The Bengals also rebuilt the defense with Dexter Lawrence II, Jonathan Allen, Boye Mafe and Bryan Cook after Trey Hendrickson's departure.

Tampa remains dangerous with Baker Mayfield, Bucky Irving, Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka and Jalen McMillan. Vita Vea, Calijah Kancey, Yaya Diaby, Rueben Bain Jr. and Antoine Winfield Jr. anchor the defense. Chase recently hyperextended his knee but indicated he felt good, while Tampa is monitoring McMillan, Egbuka and Bain.

Cincinnati's edge comes through the passing game. A healthy Burrow with Chase and Higgins can stress Tampa's secondary, while the rebuilt defensive front should give the Bengals a better chance of containing Irving and pressuring Mayfield.

The main market sits around Cincinnati -3.5. Our -2.5 moves below the key field-goal number, so a three-point Bengals win is enough. With Burrow healthy, home field and a stronger defensive front, Cincinnati has the better overall setup.

Stadion & Kickoff

Stadion

Paycor Stadium — Cincinnati, OH

Kickoff

1:00 PM EDT

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New Orleans visits Detroit at Ford Field on September 13 at 1:00 PM ET. Detroit finished 9–8 in 2025 but remained one of the league's strongest offenses, averaging 28.3 points and 373.2 yards per game. New Orleans finished 7–10 and averaged roughly 18 points.

The Lions return Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams. Gibbs produced 1,839 yards from scrimmage and 18 total touchdowns and should carry an even larger role after David Montgomery's departure. Isiah Pacheco was added, although his back injury needs monitoring.

New Orleans enters with Tyler Shough, Chris Olave and new running back Travis Etienne Jr., who rushed for 1,107 yards and seven touchdowns last season. The Saints, however, are expected to be without Alvin Kamara and first-round receiver Jordyn Tyson. Bryan Bresee and Dillon Radunz are also out for the season.

Detroit has defensive concerns of its own, with Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch unlikely for Week 1, but Aidan Hutchinson, Alim McNeill, Tyleik Williams and Jack Campbell still give the Lions a solid front. The main difference is offensive depth: Detroit can attack through Gibbs, St. Brown, Williams and potentially Sam LaPorta, while New Orleans arrives short-handed.

The broader market is around Detroit -7. Our -6.5 stays below the touchdown number, meaning a seven-point Lions win covers. With the stronger quarterback situation, home field and a major scoring advantage from 2025, Detroit is the preferred side.

Stadion & Kickoff

Stadion

Ford Field — Detroit, MI

Kickoff

1:00 PM ET

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Buffalo and Houston meet on September 13 at 12:00 PM CT. Houston finished 12–5 in 2025, averaging 23.8 points while allowing only 17.4, the second-best scoring defense in the NFL. The Texans went 7–2 at home and scored about 27.3 points per home game.

Buffalo remains one of the league's strongest offenses behind Josh Allen and James Cook, averaging roughly 28.3 points in 2025. On the road, however, that fell to about 25.0. Houston's defense is built to challenge that attack with Will Anderson Jr., Danielle Hunter, Derek Stingley Jr., Kamari Lassiter and Calen Bullock.

Houston's offense, led by C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins and Tank Dell, averaged 23.8 points and did not need shootouts to win. The Texans' defensive pressure allows them to control tempo and protect the secondary without constantly blitzing.

Last season Houston beat Buffalo 23–19 in the same matchup, a 42-point game. That result fits the broader profile: Buffalo has the higher offensive ceiling, but Houston's defense and home-field performance can drag the game into a more controlled pace.

The main total is around 44.5. Our Under 47.5 gives roughly three points of protection, allowing results such as 24–21, 23–20 or 27–20 to stay under. We do not need Allen to struggle completely; Houston only needs to keep the game from becoming a sustained shootout.

Stadion & Kickoff

Stadion

TBA

Kickoff

12:00 PM CT

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Baltimore visits Indianapolis at Lucas Oil Stadium on September 13 at 1:00 PM ET. Both teams finished 8–9 in 2025. Baltimore averaged 24.9 points and allowed 23.4; Indianapolis averaged 27.4 and allowed 24.2.

The Ravens' main advantage is the Lamar Jackson-Derrick Henry backfield. Indianapolis must account for Lamar's designed runs and scrambling while still handling Henry between the tackles. Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews become dangerous when the Colts commit extra defenders to the run.

Indianapolis counters with Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor, but the passing game has changed. Michael Pittman Jr. departed, Alec Pierce is returning from ankle surgery after a 1,003-yard season, and Josh Downs has dealt with a calf issue. Tyler Warren and several defensive starters have also been monitored.

Baltimore's defense should benefit from better health after an uneven 2025. If the Ravens control Taylor on early downs, they can force Jones into longer passing situations and allow their pressure packages to dictate the game.

The main spread is around Baltimore -3.5. Our -2.5 crosses below the key number three: a field-goal Ravens victory covers instead of losing. Indianapolis has enough talent and home-field advantage to keep this close, which is exactly why the reduced handicap is preferable.

Stadion & Kickoff

Stadion

Lucas Oil Stadium — Indianapolis, IN

Kickoff

1:00 PM ET

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Cleveland visits Jacksonville at EverBank Stadium on September 13 at 1:00 PM ET. Jacksonville finished 13–4 in 2025, averaging 27.9 points and allowing 19.8. Cleveland went 5–12, averaged only 16.4 points and allowed 22.3.

The home/road split widens the gap. Jacksonville went 7–2 at home, while Cleveland was 2–6 away and averaged only 14.5 road points. The Browns failed to reach 21 points in seven of eight away games.

Trevor Lawrence returns with Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers, Parker Washington and Travis Hunter. Josh Hines-Allen, Travon Walker and Arik Armstead lead a defense that generated 31 takeaways. Thomas' shoulder needs monitoring, but the expectation has been focused on getting him ready for Week 1.

Cleveland will start Deshaun Watson after he missed all of 2025 following two Achilles surgeries. He has not played a regular-season game since October 2024. The Browns also finished last season with an NFL-low 57.9% completion rate, leaving considerable uncertainty around an offense already short on scoring.

The market is around Jacksonville -7.5 with a low total near 40.5. Our -6.5 moves below the key touchdown margin: a seven-point Jaguars win covers. In a low-total game, that point is valuable.

Jacksonville has the better offense, stronger 2025 profile and home field. Cleveland's defense can keep stretches competitive, but the Browns still need to prove they can score enough to stay within one possession.

Stadion & Kickoff

Stadion

EverBank Stadium — Jacksonville, FL

Kickoff

1:00 PM ET

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Atlanta and Pittsburgh meet at Acrisure Stadium on September 13 at 1:00 PM ET. Pittsburgh finished 10–7 in 2025 and went 6–3 at home. Atlanta finished 8–9. The Steelers averaged 23.4 points and allowed 22.8; the Falcons averaged 20.8 and allowed 23.6.

Atlanta's offense still runs through Bijan Robinson, who rushed for 1,478 yards last season. Pittsburgh's first job is to limit him on early downs and force the Falcons into more predictable passing situations. Michael Penix Jr. is returning from a torn ACL, adding another layer of uncertainty to Atlanta's passing game.

Pittsburgh begins a new era under Mike McCarthy and has schematic questions of its own, so this is not a matchup where we need a large spread. Recent meetings have also been tight and low scoring: Pittsburgh won 18–10 in 2024 and 19–16 in 2022.

The 2025 numbers favor Pittsburgh, but only moderately. That makes the line more important than the raw matchup. Around a three-point spread, moving below the key number gives meaningful protection.

At Steelers -2.5, a field-goal victory is enough. Pittsburgh has home field, the better 2025 record and slightly better scoring numbers on both sides of the ball. Atlanta can stay close through Robinson, but Pittsburgh only needs a narrow win to cover.

Stadion & Kickoff

Stadion

Acrisure Stadium — Pittsburgh, PA

Kickoff

1:00 PM ET

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New York and Tennessee meet at Nissan Stadium on September 13 at 12:00 PM CDT. Both finished 3–14 in 2025. Tennessee averaged 16.7 points and allowed 28.1; New York averaged 17.6 and allowed 29.6.

The offensive numbers are poor, but the defenses are the reason to consider the Over. Together they allowed 57.7 points per game. The Jets were especially vulnerable away from home, conceding exactly 32.0 points per road game and at least 27 in six of eight away games.

Tennessee returns Cam Ward after 3,169 passing yards as a rookie, with Tony Pollard and Chig Okonkwo among the established pieces. Robert Saleh now leads the Titans and faces his former team. New York, meanwhile, gets a favorable matchup against a Tennessee defense that allowed 28.1 points per game and struggled through the air at home.

Neither offense needs to become elite. The line only requires 39 combined points, so 21–18, 23–17 or 24–17 are enough. Turnovers, short fields and defensive breakdowns can get the game there even if both teams remain inconsistent on offense.

The main total is around 39.5. Our Over 38.5 sits a point lower, giving useful protection in a matchup between two defenses that surrendered 981 combined points last season.

Stadion & Kickoff

Stadion

Nissan Stadium — Nashville, TN

Kickoff

12:00 PM CDT

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Miami visits Las Vegas at Allegiant Stadium on September 13 at 1:25 PM PT. Miami finished 7–10 in 2025, averaging 20.4 points and allowing 24.9. Las Vegas went 3–14, scoring only 14.2 per game while allowing 25.4.

Those offenses combined for just 34.6 points per game, but the defenses allowed 50.3. Miami also allowed opponents to score on 41.4% of drives, leaving room for a rebuilt Raiders offense to improve on last year's poor production.

Las Vegas now has a new quarterback structure around Kirk Cousins/Fernando Mendoza, Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers. Jeanty's ankle needs monitoring, but his running ability and Bowers' receiving threat give the Raiders more ways to create points. Miami has changed even more, with Malik Willis at quarterback and De'Von Achane carrying much of the explosive-play burden.

The Dolphins no longer have the same passing identity, but Willis' mobility and Achane's speed can generate points without long drives. Las Vegas still has Maxx Crosby, yet its defense allowed 25.4 per game last season and cannot be assumed to improve immediately.

Over 40.5 requires 41 points. Scores such as 21–20, 24–17 or 23–20 are enough. With both defenses allowing around 25 points per game in 2025, the threshold is reachable without requiring a shootout.

Stadion & Kickoff

Stadion

Allegiant Stadium — Las Vegas, NV

Kickoff

1:25 PM PT

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Arizona visits the Chargers at SoFi Stadium on September 13 at 1:25 PM PT. Los Angeles finished 11–6 in 2025, averaging 21.6 points and allowing 20.0. Arizona went 3–14, averaging 20.9 while conceding 28.7, one of the league's weakest defensive marks.

Arizona was only 2–7 on the road and ended 2025 on a nine-game losing streak. The Chargers return Justin Herbert after 3,727 passing yards, 26 touchdowns and 498 rushing yards. Omarion Hampton, Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston give him a strong offensive core under new coordinator Mike McDaniel.

Arizona enters with Jacoby Brissett expected at quarterback and uncertainty in the backfield. Trey Benson is on injured reserve, while James Conner and rookie Jeremiyah Love have been dealing with injuries. The Cardinals' best chance is creating pressure against a Chargers line that lost Tyler Biadasz for the season.

Even with that concern, the overall gap favors Los Angeles. Arizona allowed nearly 29 points per game, while the Chargers reached 11 wins behind a defense that conceded only 20.0.

The main market is around Chargers -10 to -10.5. Our -6.5 cuts roughly four points from that requirement and moves below seven. Any Chargers victory by a touchdown is enough, which is far more forgiving than the primary spread.

Stadion & Kickoff

Stadion

SoFi Stadium — Inglewood, CA

Kickoff

1:25 PM PT

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Green Bay and Minnesota meet at U.S. Bank Stadium in an NFC North matchup where our focus is the touchdown market.

Jordan Mason shares the top of Minnesota's running-back depth chart with Aaron Jones and gives the Vikings a physical option near the goal line. At 2.80, his anytime touchdown price implies roughly 35.7%. He does not need the majority of the carries; one red-zone opportunity can be enough.

Green Bay's Josh Jacobs has the stronger established touchdown profile. He recorded 234 carries for 929 yards and 13 rushing touchdowns in 2025, adding another score as a receiver. His 2.05 price implies roughly 48.8%, reasonable for a back who remains central to Green Bay's goal-line offense.

Jacobs' status must be confirmed before kickoff. Green Bay has been preparing for the possibility of an NFL suspension, and he has also dealt with a groin issue. If active with his normal role, his red-zone usage supports the bet.

The two selections are independent: Mason offers the larger return through his potential short-yardage role, while Jacobs brings the stronger recent touchdown production.

Stadion & Kickoff

Stadion

U.S. Bank Stadium

Kickoff

TBA

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Washington visits Philadelphia at Lincoln Financial Field on September 13 at 4:25 PM ET. Philadelphia finished 11–6 in 2025, averaging 22.3 points and allowing 19.1. Washington went 5–12, averaging 20.9 and conceding 26.5.

The gap is clearer in scoring differential: Philadelphia finished around +3.2 points per game, Washington around -5.6. The Eagles were 5–3 at home, while the Commanders went 3–6 on the road.

Washington's defense is the matchup Philadelphia can attack. Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley force defenses to respect multiple rushing threats, and committing extra defenders to the box opens play-action opportunities. Washington's best answer is Jayden Daniels, whose mobility can extend drives and keep the game within one possession.

Philadelphia also enters with the stronger defensive baseline, having allowed 126 fewer points than Washington last season. Jonathan Greenard and Cooper DeJean are among the injury situations to monitor, while Washington also has several defensive players working back toward Week 1.

The market is around Eagles -4.5 to -5.5. Our -6.5 is more aggressive and trades extra handicap for a 2.00 price. The key is staying below seven: a seven-point Philadelphia win still covers.

Washington has enough talent to make this uncomfortable, but Philadelphia owns the better 2025 record, defense, home split and scoring differential. We are backing those advantages to produce at least a one-touchdown win.

Stadion & Kickoff

Stadion

Lincoln Financial Field — Philadelphia, PA

Kickoff

4:25 PM ET

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Dallas visits the Giants at MetLife Stadium on September 13 at 8:20 PM ET. The Cowboys finished 7–9–1 in 2025 but averaged 27.7 points per game, seventh in the NFL. Their problem was defense, which allowed a league-worst 30.1. New York finished 4–13, averaging 22.4 points and allowing 25.8.

Dallas still has the more established offensive core with Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Javonte Williams and Jake Ferguson. The Cowboys spent the offseason rebuilding a defense that repeatedly forced the offense into high-scoring games.

New York is more dangerous than the record suggests. Jaxson Dart returns as starter, Cam Skattebo leads the backfield, and Malik Nabers has made progress in his recovery from a torn ACL. His Week 1 status remains important.

The 2025 meetings showed the risk. Dallas won 40–37 in overtime, but New York answered with a 34–17 win at MetLife. That is why the moneyline is preferable to laying points.

Dallas averaged 5.3 more points per game than the Giants and has the stronger established quarterback-receiver combination. With the market around Cowboys -2.5, taking the 1.70 moneyline removes the need for margin: any Dallas victory is enough.

Stadion & Kickoff

Stadion

MetLife Stadium — East Rutherford, NJ

Kickoff

8:20 PM ET

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Denver visits Kansas City at Arrowhead on September 14 at 7:15 PM CT. The Broncos finished 14–3 in 2025, averaging 23.6 points and allowing only 18.3. Kansas City went 6–11, averaging 21.3 and allowing 19.3.

Denver was also strong away from home at 6–2, while Kansas City finished 5–4 at Arrowhead. The Broncos' defense remains the foundation of the matchup after finishing among the league's best units in 2025.

Patrick Mahomes is the major variable. He is returning from ACL and LCL tears suffered in December and has trained during camp, but final Week 1 clearance remains important. Kansas City added Kenneth Walker III and still has Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce, so the offense has more support if Mahomes is ready.

Denver also improved around Bo Nix by adding Jaylen Waddle alongside Courtland Sutton, with J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey in the backfield. The Broncos already had the better 2025 scoring differential and now add another explosive receiver.

Recent meetings favor Denver. The Broncos swept Kansas City last season, 22–19 and 20–13, and have won four of the last five. The last six meetings produced 33, 41, 38, 30, 33 and 27 combined points, showing how often this rivalry has been decided in tight, defensive games.

The main market gives Denver around +2.5. Our +3.5 crosses the key field-goal number: a three-point Kansas City win still cashes the bet. Denver does not need another victory at Arrowhead; it only needs to avoid losing by four or more.

Stadion & Kickoff

Stadion

Arrowhead — Kansas City, MO

Kickoff

7:15 PM CT