Burnley vs Derby County Prediction, Odds and Betting tips
Published: September 15, 2026Updated: September 15, 2026Our methodology
Burnley vs Derby County meet in EFL Championship. Review the match analysis and relevant team context; the prediction and published odds are shown directly on the page.
Match Context
- Competition
- EFL Championship
- Round
- Matchday 8
- Date
- 2026-09-19
- Local time
- 15:00
- Venue
- Turf Moor
Sources: www.footballwebpages.co.uk — source 1; www.soccerstats.com — source 2; www.soccerstats.com — source 3
Statistical Core Predictions-Sports-Prime
Sample: Published Statistical Core; sample sizes and caveats are shown per row
Sources: www.footballwebpages.co.uk — source 1; www.soccerstats.com — source 2; www.soccerstats.com — source 3
Burnley vs Derby County Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips
Prediction: Over 2.5 Goals Odds: 1.83
Match information: EFL Championship 2026/27 · 19 September 2026 · 15:00 BST · Turf Moor, Burnley, England. No complete confirmed starting XI is available this far from kick-off, and no unverified injury or suspension is inserted. Official team sheets and late club availability updates remain authoritative close to kick-off.
Burnley and Derby meet at Turf Moor with both teams sitting in the bottom part of the early table and both carrying defensive problems into the weekend. Burnley have taken only two points from three home league games, scoring four and conceding five, while Derby's three away matches have produced one win and two defeats with three scored and five conceded. Each relevant venue split has gone Over 1.5 in all three games and Over 2.5 in two of three. That symmetry makes the goal line more coherent than markets in this round that depend on one side's numbers alone.
Burnley's home actual-goal average is exactly 3.00 and Derby's away average 2.67. The underlying numbers also lean toward Derby giving up chances: their away xGA is 1.89 against only 1.08 xG created. Burnley are more balanced at 1.34 xG and 1.32 xGA at Turf Moor, so the home side's problem has been less about being overwhelmed territorially and more about failing to turn competitive games into points. Derby's defensive allowance is the clearest statistical route for Burnley to score more than once.
Recent results keep the game open from both directions. Burnley lost 3-1 at Swansea after a 1-1 draw with Wrexham, while Derby were beaten 2-1 by Birmingham after earlier away success at Portsmouth. Neither recent sequence supports a low-risk defensive approach. If Burnley push to repair their poor start in front of their own crowd, Derby should have transition opportunities; if Derby concede first, their low away points return forces them to chase rather than preserve a narrow deficit.
At 1.83, the raw implied probability is 54.64%. Both venue-specific Over 2.5 rates are 67% over N=3, which is directionally supportive but too small to treat as a stable probability. The stronger evidence is the combination of a 3.00 Burnley home goal environment, Derby's 1.89 away xGA and the fact that neither side has produced a sub-1.5 game in the relevant splits. The main counter-signal is Burnley's own xG/xGA balance, which could still produce a controlled 1-1 if finishing remains modest.
Over 2.5 Goals is one of the more naturally aligned goal selections in the batch, though it remains exposed to the usual small-sample problem. A first-half goal would reinforce the profile by forcing the trailing team to take greater risks, while a goalless opening hour is the most obvious threat. The 1.83 quote should not be treated as if three-match percentages were a certainty.
Statistical coverage is partial where the retained public sources do not expose every PSP target metric. Unavailable target metrics remain unavailable rather than being estimated or replaced with zeroes.
| Metric | Burnley — HOME | Derby County — AWAY |
|---|---|---|
| Matches (N) | 3 | 3 |
| PPG | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| Total goals / match | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% |
| Corners for / match | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| Corners against / match | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| Total corners / match | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| xG for / match | 1.34 | 1.08 |
| xGA / match | 1.32 | 1.89 |
Burnley–Derby at 1.83 converts to 54.64% before margin. Both relevant venue samples are 67% Over 2.5 and 100% Over 1.5, but those percentages come from only three matches per side. The table's more durable directional point is Derby's 1.89 away xGA combined with Burnley's 3.00 home total-goal environment, not the assumption that a short early-season rate will remain fixed.
At decimal odds of 1.83, the raw implied probability is 1 / 1.83 = 54.64% before bookmaker margin. This is market-price context only, not a historical hit rate or a model forecast; the value assessment remains tied to the HOME/AWAY evidence and the risks described above.
Prediction: Over 2.5 Goals Odds: 1.83
Sources: - https://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/championship/fixtures-results - https://www.soccerstats.com/homeaway.asp?league=england2 - https://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?league=england2&tid=cr - https://www.portfoliosports.com/football/championship/2026-09-19/burnley-v-derby-county/
Sources & Data
- www.footballwebpages.co.uk — source 1Source retained from the validated publication analysis.Accessed 2026-09-15
- www.soccerstats.com — source 2Source retained from the validated publication analysis.Accessed 2026-09-15
- www.soccerstats.com — source 3Source retained from the validated publication analysis.Accessed 2026-09-15
- www.portfoliosports.com — source 4Source retained from the validated publication analysis.Accessed 2026-09-15
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