Greece vs Germany Prediction, Odds and Betting tips

Greece vs Germany Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

Competition: UEFA Nations League 2026/27 — League A, Group 2, Matchday 4 · Date: 2026-10-04 · Kick-off: 21:45 local · Round: League A, Group 2, Matchday 4 · Venue/location: Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki, Greece

At the current research cutoff, Greece lead Group A2 with six points after beating Serbia 2-1 and Germany 1-0. Germany are third on one point after drawing 1-1 with the Netherlands and losing to Greece. This rematch comes after Matchday 3, when Greece face the Netherlands and Germany host Serbia on 1 October.

That scheduling is important: the table position and form paragraph must be refreshed after those Matchday 3 fixtures before publication. The current analysis is based on the first two rounds and the direct 1-0 Greek win in Munich.

Through two Nations League matches Greece have scored three goals and conceded one, averaging 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded and 2.00 total goals per match. Germany have scored one and conceded two, averaging 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded and 1.50 total.

The broader Germany five-game sample has produced 2.20 total goals per match. Greece's current competitive form is stronger: two wins from two and a first-ever senior victory over Germany in the most recent meeting.

Team news, availability and projected lineups

Greece: Odysseas Vlachodimos/Konstantinos Tzolakis; George Baldock replacement, Konstantinos Mavropanos, Pantelis Hatzidiakos, Kostas Tsimikas; Dimitris Kourbelis, Manolis Siopis; Christos Tzolis, Giannis Konstantelias, Giorgos Masouras; Vangelis Pavlidis.

Germany: Alexander Nübel; Josha Vagnoman, Yann Bisseck, Jonathan Tah, Nathaniel Brown; Joshua Kimmich, Felix Nmecha; Karim Adeyemi, Florian Wirtz/Conté, Kevin Schade/Serge Gnabry; Jonathan Burkardt/Ebnoutalib.

For Greece vs Germany, the XI above is a pre-match projection built from the latest squad and competitive-start information available in the cited sources. Any official starting lineup released before kickoff should take precedence.

Germany are without Kai Havertz and Brajan Gruda in the current window, while other midfield fitness concerns have reduced Klopp's options. Greece's final availability must be rechecked after the Netherlands match because Matchday 3 takes place only three days before this fixture.

Kourbelis scored the winner in Munich and remains central to Greece's midfield structure, but suspension accumulation and rotation could change the projected XI by 4 October.

Head-to-head

UEFA list Greece with one win, Germany seven and three draws in the broader historical series. Greece's only victory came in the current Nations League on 27 September, a 1-0 win in Munich. The rematch therefore carries direct tactical evidence that is more relevant than older historical meetings.

Match analysis, tactics and expected game state

Greece's first two Nations League matches average 2.00 total goals and Germany's 1.50, while the first direct meeting ended 1-0. The Over 1.5 leg therefore needs a higher-event rematch than the Munich game; the strongest route is Germany being forced to attack because of the group position after Matchday 3.

The X2 component assumes Germany can respond to the shock home defeat. Germany had more possession in Munich but lacked efficiency in the final third, so the rematch depends on converting control into clearer chances. Greece are unlikely to abandon the compact structure that frustrated them.

The Over 1.5 component is not automatic because the first meeting ended 1-0. The case for a higher total comes from match state and the need for Germany to attack more aggressively if they are still behind Greece in the group after Matchday 3.

A 1-1 draw is enough for the combination, as are 1-2, 0-2 or any wider Germany win. Because both teams play on 1 October, this article requires a mandatory post-Matchday-3 refresh before publication.

Statistical coverage is partial. A complete comparable current-cycle HOME sample for Greece and AWAY sample for Germany was not available from the cited material. The missing xG, xGA, shots, shots on target, possession and corner metrics remain unavailable rather than being estimated, and the projected lineups above are not treated as confirmed teamsheets.

Market price and value

Conclusion