Italy vs Belgium Prediction, Odds and Betting tips

Italy vs Belgium Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

Competition: UEFA Nations League 2026/27 · League: A · Group: A1 · Date: 25 September 2026 · Kick-off: 20:45 CET

The 2026/27 Nations League has not started at the editorial cutoff, so there is no legitimate current-season HOME/AWAY sample to quote for either side. This preview therefore uses the announced September squads, projected tactical structures, verified H2H and current team changes without importing club statistics, World Cup numbers or previous Nations League editions into the Statistical Core.

Team News and Call-Ups

Italy call-up: Marco Carnesecchi, Gianluigi Donnarumma, Massimo Pessina, Guglielmo Vicario; Honest Ahanor, Alessandro Bastoni, Riccardo Calafiori, Diego Coppola, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Federico Dimarco, Daniele Ghilardi, Michael Kayode, Eddy Kouadio, Gianluca Mancini, Giorgio Scalvini; Nicolò Barella, Bryan Cristante, Issa Doumbia, Nicolò Fagioli, Davide Frattesi, Rolando Mandragora, Alessandro Romano, Sandro Tonali; Nicolò Cambiaghi, Francesco Pio Esposito, Sebastiano Esposito, Samuele Inacio, Moise Kean, Daniel Maldini, Giacomo Raspadori, Gianluca Scamacca, Antonio Vergara, Nicolò Zaniolo and Mohamed Alì Zoma.

Belgium call-up: Jari De Busser, Senne Lammens, Mike Penders, Maarten Vandevoordt; Timothy Castagne, Zeno Debast, Maxim De Cuyper, Koni De Winter, Brandon Mechele, Nathan Ngoy, Kyriani Sabbe, Joaquin Seys, Arthur Theate; Kevin De Bruyne, Mandela Keita, Romeo Lavia, Nicolas Raskin, Youri Tielemans, Hans Vanaken; Charles De Ketelaere, Matias Fernandez-Pardo, Malick Fofana, Mika Godts, Romelu Lukaku, Dodi Lukebakio, Diego Moreira, Loïs Openda and Leandro Trossard.

Changes around the two teams: Roberto Mancini's second spell opens with a very large group and nine first-time call-ups. Fagioli and Zaniolo return after long absences and Mandragora is back after several years, while the front line is deliberately broad enough for Mancini to test combinations around Kean, Scamacca, Raspadori and the Esposito brothers. Mark van Bommel starts without Thibaut Courtois, who agreed to skip this Nations League window, and without injured Jérémy Doku. Witsel has retired internationally. The squad therefore changes both the goalkeeper hierarchy and the width profile, while De Bruyne, Tielemans and Lukaku remain the experienced axis.

Probable Lineups

Probable lineups — PSP projection, not confirmed teamsheets: Italy: Gianluigi Donnarumma; Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Alessandro Bastoni, Riccardo Calafiori; Michael Kayode, Nicolò Barella, Sandro Tonali, Federico Dimarco; Giacomo Raspadori, Nicolò Zaniolo; Moise Kean. Belgium: Senne Lammens; Timothy Castagne, Zeno Debast, Arthur Theate, Maxim De Cuyper; Youri Tielemans, Romeo Lavia, Kevin De Bruyne; Dodi Lukebakio, Romelu Lukaku, Leandro Trossard. These XIs are an editorial projection from the current call-ups and tactical roles. Official teamsheets take precedence and should be checked close to kickoff.

Injuries and Availability

Belgium are without Thibaut Courtois, who agreed to skip this Nations League window, and Jérémy Doku, who is injured. Witsel has retired from international football. No corresponding absence is reported inside Italy's projected XI.

Head-to-Head

UEFA's official record has Italy with 17 wins, 5 draws and Belgium with 4 wins from 26 meetings. The 2024 Nations League meetings were much tighter than the overall history: Italy drew 2-2 at home and then won 1-0 in Belgium.

Match Analysis and Tactical Breakdown

The combination requires Italy to avoid defeat and at least two total goals. Mancini's return changes the attacking interpretation because this is not a settled continuation of the previous cycle: nine players are receiving first calls, Zaniolo and Fagioli return, and the squad contains multiple centre-forward profiles. The probable 3-4-2-1 gives Italy width through Dimarco/Kayode and enough midfield control through Barella and Tonali to keep the team compact after attacks.

Belgium begin a new cycle of their own. Van Bommel has no Courtois for this window and no Doku, while Witsel has retired. De Bruyne and Tielemans still give them a route through midfield, and Lukaku remains capable of fixing centre-backs to create second-line space for Trossard or Lukebakio. Without Doku, however, Belgium lose one of their clearest one-v-one tools for breaking a compact Italian block from a standing start.

The Over 1.5 leg does not need an open match. A 1-1 is sufficient and also protects Italy X1; a 2-0 Italy result does the same. The dangerous scoreline is 0-1 Belgium, especially if Italy's new attacking combinations struggle to create depth. Conversely, an early Italy goal forces Belgium to release De Bruyne higher and gives the match a much more favorable shape for the two-goal threshold.

The Core is intentionally limited to the current competition and current edition. Because Matchday 1 begins on 25 September, replacing the missing sample with friendlies, World Cup matches or older Nations League editions would create a false current-season comparison. H2H is kept outside the Core because it spans other competitions and eras.

Risks and Counter-Signals

The combined market needs Italy to avoid defeat and the match to produce at least two goals, so the price should be judged against both conditions rather than against Italy's result probability alone. Mancini's nine debutants and Belgium's absences at goalkeeper and on the wing add lineup uncertainty that a settled squad would not carry into an opening fixture.

Market Price Context

Value Assessment

With no current-competition scoring rate to cite, the value case rests on Italy's home platform and midfield control against a Belgium side missing Courtois and Doku. The projected lineups and availability should be refreshed if there is a late withdrawal.

Conclusion

Italy's structure and home advantage support avoiding defeat, while the attacking talent on both sides, even in transition, makes at least two goals a reasonable expectation for an opening-round fixture between two sides beginning new cycles.

Sources

- UEFA — 2026/27 Nations League league-phase fixtures: https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/news/02a2-1fea18abbcbc-456e846509e7-1000/ - Italy current squad/call-up source: https://sport.sky.it/calcio/nazionale/2026/09/18/convocati-italia-mancini-nazionale-nations-league-2026 - Belgium current squad/call-up source: https://as.com/futbol/internacional/van-bommel-sobre-la-ausencia-de-courtois-los-porteros-que-tenemos-tampoco-estan-mal-f202609-n/ - H2H reference: https://www.uefa.com/news-media/mediaservices/informationkits/competitions/uefanationsleague/2025/match/2040149/printmatchpresskits/ - FIGC — Italy vs Belgium venue / Mancini return: https://www.figc.it/en/national-teams/news/nations-league-journey-to-begin-in-rome-italy-vs-belgium-at-the-olimpico-on-25-september-italy-vs-turkey-at-bolognas-dallara-on-5-october-imxew56p