New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls Prediction, Odds and Betting tips
Published: September 15, 2026Our methodology
New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls meet in Major League Soccer. Review the match analysis and relevant team context; the prediction and published odds are shown directly on the page.
Match Context
- Competition
- Major League Soccer
- Round
- Gameweek 26
- Date
- 2026-09-18
- Local time
- 19:30
- Venue
- Yankee Stadium
Sources: Major League Soccer — official site; FotMob
New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls Prediction, Odds and Match Analysis
Probable lineups, injuries and suspensions
New York City FC (4-3-3): Matt Freese; Tayvon Gray, Thiago Martins, Raul Gustavo, Kevin O'Toole; Axel Ojeda, Andrés Perea, Jonathan Shore; Nicolás Fernández Mercau, B. Traoré, M. Jones.
New York Red Bulls (4-3-3): Ethan Horvath; Dylan Nealis, Matthew Dos Santos, Julián Bazán, Robert Voloder; Adri Mehmeti, Emil Forsberg, Gustav Berggren; Jorge Ruvalcaba, Julian Hall, Cade Cowell.
The projected XIs have been cross-checked against current derby previews and recent Red Bulls selections. Nicolás Fernández Mercau and Julian Hall remain the principal scoring references identified in the latest match data.
Match analysis
NYCFC have gone five league matches without a win in the current FotMob sequence, scoring four goals in that span, while the Red Bulls' five listed matches contain only three goals for New York. That recent output pushes against a low over price. The derby history is more helpful: the last three recorded meetings finished 1–1, 3–1 and 3–2, with the latter two clearing this line.
Head-to-head
New York Red Bulls lead the all-competition record 16 wins to 13, with five draws across 34 recorded meetings. NYCFC won 3–1 in the 2026 Open Cup after the May league meeting ended 1–1.
Probability of the prediction
In this market, Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.47 corresponds to a raw implied probability of 68.0% before bookmaker margin. For New York City FC–New York Red Bulls, current form, table position and squad availability support an estimated probability of 69.5%.
Conclusion
Recent derby meetings give the over a route, but both teams' immediate scoring form is weaker than the price suggests. An early goal is important; another 1–1 or a controlled 2–0 is the clearest danger.
Final prediction: Over 2.5 Goals — odds 1.47.
Sources
Sources: MLS and club fixture pages for schedule information; FBref for match and season data; Starting11 and current match previews for probable lineups and availability; FotMob for recent results, injuries and head-to-head records.
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