Nigeria vs Madagascar Prediction, Odds and Betting tips

Nigeria vs Madagascar Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

Competition: 2027 Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying · Group: L · Round: Matchday 1 · Date: 25 September 2026 · Kick-off: 16:00 GMT (17:00 WAT) · Venue: Godswill Akpabio International Stadium, Uyo

Team News, Call-Ups and Availability

Nigeria begin at home in Uyo with one major change: Victor Osimhen is out. The Nigeria Football Federation and CAF confirmed Osimhen’s absence for the Madagascar and Guinea-Bissau qualifiers because of a right adductor strain that took longer to heal than expected, and Taiwo Awoniyi was called in as his replacement. Éric Chelle’s squad includes Stanley Nwabali, Maduka Okoye and Arthur Okonkwo in goal; Bruno Onyemaechi, Isaac James, Benjamin Fredricks, Emmanuel Fernandez, Semi Ajayi, Calvin Bassey, Chibuike Nwaiwu, Bright Osayi-Samuel and Ola Aina in defence; Wilfred Ndidi, Alex Iwobi, Raphael Onyedika and Frank Onyeka in midfield; and Moses Simon, Akor Adams, Samuel Chukwueze, Ademola Lookman, Tolu Arokodare, George Ilenikhena and Moses Usor among the forwards. Madagascar’s 25-man squad has goalkeepers Zacharie Boucher, Geordan Dupire and Nina Rakotoasimbola; defenders including Andy Pelmard and Thomas Fontaine; midfielders Marco Ilaimaharitra, Rayan Raveloson, Behaja Randriamalala, Andy Rakotondrajoa, Loïc Lapoussin and Nicolas Randriamanampisoa; and forwards El Hadary Raheriniaina, Hakim Abdallah, Arnaud Randrianantenaina, Roman Ferber, Warren Caddy and Nicolas Fontaine. Victor Osimhen is out with a muscle problem. No injury or suspension was reported for Madagascar in the sources consulted, and no complete suspension list was available for either team.

Projected Lineups

Projected lineup — not confirmed: Nigeria — Nwabali; Osayi-Samuel, Ajayi, Bassey, Aina; Ndidi, Iwobi; Chukwueze, Lookman, Moses Simon; Awoniyi, Akor Adams or Arokodare up front. Madagascar can build around Dupire or Boucher, Pelmard, Thomas Fontaine, Ilaimaharitra and Raveloson, with Hakim Abdallah among the forward options; no full eleven is given for them. Official team sheets take precedence once they are released.

Head-to-Head and Match Analysis

WorldFootball lists five meetings: three Nigeria wins, one Madagascar win and one draw, with Nigeria ahead 5-2 on goals. Madagascar’s win was a 2-0 result at AFCON 2019. Osimhen’s withdrawal changes the reference point in attack without stripping Nigeria of depth. Lookman, Chukwueze and Simon remain, and Awoniyi, Adams and Arokodare give Chelle several centre-forward profiles, although the timing of runs and box presence will differ from what Osimhen provides. Madagascar’s midfield experience, built around Ilaimaharitra and Raveloson, should help them survive spells without the ball, and the 2019 result is a reminder that Nigeria must solve the match rather than wait for the gap in talent to decide it. For a two-goal margin, Nigeria need width from Osayi-Samuel and Aina to pull a compact block apart early. If Nigeria score first, Madagascar are forced into leaving that shape and the game state opens up for the home side’s wide players; a goalless first half would make the margin much harder to reach.

Statistical coverage is partial. Group L has no 2027 qualifying sample before this match, so HOME/AWAY splits, xG, shots, possession and corners for the current competition are not available and are not estimated; head-to-head figures are historical context from other competitions and years, not current-edition averages.

Market Price and Value

Conclusion

Nigeria’s attacking quality is intact even without Osimhen, but the way it is arranged is new: Chelle has to choose between Awoniyi’s movement and the physicality of Adams or Arokodare, and decide how much width to ask of his full-backs. Madagascar’s task is to stay organised and make the most of the possession they win.

Sources

- CAF — AFCON PAMOJA 2027 MD1 & MD2 fixtures, kick-off times and venues: https://www.cafonline.com/afcon2025/news/totalenergies-caf-afcon-pamoja-2027-md-1-2-qualifiers-fixtures-kick-off-times-and-venues/ - NFF — Chelle invites Ndidi, Osimhen, Iwobi and 21 others: https://thenff.com/afcon-2027-race-chelle-invites-ndidi-osimhen-iwobi-21-others-for-barea-wild-dogs/ - CAF — Nigeria confirm Osimhen absence: https://www.cafonline.com/afcon2025/news/nigeria-confirm-osimhen-absence-for-opening-afcon-2027-qualifiers-as-striker-continues-recovery/ - Complete Sports — Awoniyi replaces injured Osimhen: https://www.completesports.com/2027-afconq-awoniyi-replaces-injured-osimhen-ahead-of-madagascar-guinea-bissau-games/ - Pan Africa Football — Madagascar squad: https://panafricafootball.com/article/madagascar-squad-afcon-nigeria - Rio Times — Nigeria v Madagascar in Uyo: https://www.riotimesonline.com/nigeria-madagascar-afcon-qualifier-uyo-september-25-2026 - WorldFootball.net — Nigeria v Madagascar: https://www.worldfootball.net/match-report/co1087/caf-africa-cup-qual/ma12093644/nigeria_madagascar/