Slovenia vs North Macedonia Prediction & Match Analysis

Slovenia vs North Macedonia Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

Competition: UEFA Nations League B · Date: 2026-09-29 · Kick-off: 20:45 local · Round: Matchday 2 — Group B1 · Venue/location: Stožice Stadium, Ljubljana

Slovenia stay at Stožice after opening Group B1 there against Scotland, while North Macedonia travel from their first match against Switzerland in Skopje. UEFA's schedule confirms this Matchday 2 fixture in Ljubljana on 29 September.

The group pairs a Slovenia side that remained in League B with a North Macedonia team promoted from League C. North Macedonia coach Goce Sedloski selected 28 players, including four debutants, but defender Nikola Serafimov will miss the window through injury. Slovenia's final selection and any availability changes should be checked after the Scotland opener.

Team news, availability and projected lineups

Slovenia (projected 4-4-2/4-2-3-1): Jan Oblak if retained as the starting goalkeeper; available first-choice defenders; a compact central midfield; Benjamin Šeško as the main vertical and penalty-area threat with attacking support from the current squad.

North Macedonia (projected 4-2-3-1/3-4-2-1): Stole Dimitrievski; a defense selected without injured Nikola Serafimov; midfield from Sedloski's current group; experienced attacking creators supporting the chosen striker.

These are projected roles, not confirmed lineups, because both sides have a Matchday 1 fixture first.

Post-Matchday 1 update (28 September 2026): Slovenia drew 0-0 with Scotland; Vanja Drkušić was injured during that match and is ruled out, with David Zec the likely replacement. Beno Šeško remains unavailable with his recurring shin problem, and Andraž Šporar could miss out again, leaving Žan Vipotnik (Swansea City) an option to lead the line; Jan Oblak is on course to start what would be his 86th cap. North Macedonia lost 3-0 to Switzerland without further injury concerns, but Nikola Serafimov (elbow) remains out; captain Enis Bardhi is expected to retain his place for what would be his 84th appearance. No changes to the published pick or odds are warranted by this update.

Match analysis, tactics and H2H

Slovenia's route at Stožice is based on control without losing vertical threat. Oblak gives them an elite last line, while Šeško can turn direct passes or transitions into high-value attacks. North Macedonia's promotion shows they cannot be treated as a passive visitor, and their experienced core has a history of competing well in difficult away environments.

The countries have met several times in qualifiers and friendlies, with North Macedonia earning notable results in the series, including a 2-1 home win during Euro 2020 qualifying. Slovenia have therefore had enough difficulty with this opponent for the H2H to serve as a warning rather than evidence of superiority.

Statistical coverage is partial. A complete comparable current-cycle HOME sample for Slovenia and AWAY sample for North Macedonia was not available from the cited material. The missing xG, xGA, shots, shots on target, possession and corner metrics remain unavailable rather than being estimated, and the projected lineups are not treated as confirmed teamsheets.

Market price and value

Any Slovenia winning margin qualifies, but a draw does not. The market therefore turns on whether Slovenia can convert home control into the first goal before North Macedonia settle into the defensive and transition pattern described above. This is a market-price assessment rather than a claim that the implied percentage is a historical frequency or an independent forecast.

Conclusion