UEFA Nations League DMatchday 1 — Group D1
Sep 24, 2026 · 18:00League local timeEstadi de la FAF
Andorra
VS
Malta
Match Analysis

Andorra vs Malta Prediction, Odds and Betting tips

Published: September 22, 2026Updated: September 22, 2026Our methodology

Andorra vs Malta meet in UEFA Nations League D, Matchday 1 — Group D1 at Estadi de la FAF on 2026-09-24 at 18:00. This preview reviews the statistical and form context behind the pick; the prediction and published odds are shown directly on the page.

Match Context

Competition
UEFA Nations League D
Round
Matchday 1 — Group D1
Date
2026-09-24
Local time
18:00
Venue
Estadi de la FAF

Sources: UEFA — official 2026/27 Nations League fixtures; Malta FA — national-team news

Andorra vs Malta Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

Prediction: Over 2.5 Goals Odds: 1.62

Competition: UEFA Nations League D · Date: 2026-09-24 · Kick-off: 18:00 CET · Round: Matchday 1 — Group D1 · Venue/location: Estadi de la FAF, Encamp

Andorra and Malta open Group D1 of the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League on September 24 at Estadi de la FAF. The group contains only Andorra, Malta and Gibraltar, so every direct meeting carries extra weight in a four-match schedule. Their previous Nations League meetings were tight, but both teams arrive with personnel and tactical changes that make the new campaign more relevant than simply repeating the old head-to-head pattern.

Malta coach Emilio De Leo initially called 29 players and then reduced the travelling group to 26. Joseph Mbong is suspended for the opener, while Jayden Roe and Kevin Cannavò were omitted from the travelling squad; Cannavò had only recently returned from injury. Aleandro Garzia was already unavailable through injury. Ryan Camenzuli, by contrast, is back after missing the June window. Malta still have an experienced core through Henry Bonello, Zach Muscat, Matthew Guillaumier and Teddy Teuma, while Ilyas Chouaref, Irvin Cardona, Basil Tuma, Paul Mbong, Keyon Ewurum and Andrea Zammit give De Leo different attacking profiles.

A projected Malta XI is Henry Bonello; Zach Muscat, Enrico Pepe, Jean Borg; Carlo Zammit Lonardelli, Matthew Guillaumier, Teddy Teuma, Ryan Camenzuli; Ilyas Chouaref, Irvin Cardona, Paul Mbong. It is an expected lineup rather than a confirmed XI, particularly because De Leo changed the travelling group immediately before departure.

Andorra have retained Koldo Álvarez and continue to build around an experienced base while adding younger options. Ian Olivera has been called up for the four Nations League matches, joining a defensive pool that includes Moisés San Nicolás, Jesús Rubio and Joel Guillén. Marc Vales, Jordi Aláez, Àlexandre Martínez, Ricard Fernández and Guillaume Lopez remain among the more experienced attacking and midfield references.

A projected Andorra XI is Iker Álvarez; Moisés San Nicolás, Ian Olivera, Joel Guillén; Jesús Rubio, Marc Vales, Pau Babot, Jordi Aláez; Àlexandre Martínez, Ricard Fernández, Guillaume Lopez. As with Malta, the final structure should remain marked as probable until the official team sheet.

The Over 2.5 selection asks this match to break away from the low-scoring pattern associated with several previous meetings. Malta arrive after scoring twice against Azerbaijan in June and have more variety in the front line, but Mbong's suspension removes one familiar option. Andorra's home role should also require more initiative than a purely defensive away performance.

Statistical coverage is partial: a complete 22/22 Statistical Core with comparable current-cycle HOME data for Andorra and AWAY data for Malta, including xG, xGA, shots, shots on target, possession and corners, is unavailable in the cited material. Those metrics remain unavailable rather than being estimated.

Market price and value

At published odds of 1.62, the raw implied probability is 61.7%, calculated as 1 / 1.62 = 0.6173 before bookmaker margin. That is the market-price threshold, not a historical hit rate or a separate PSP probability forecast.

Conclusion

The prediction is Over 2.5 Goals at 1.62. Three goals are required, making this a more aggressive total than the historical profile of the fixture; the principal risk is a cautious opening that leaves the match locked at 0-0 or 1-0, while the case for the selection depends on the current attacking options producing a more open game state.

Prediction: Over 2.5 Goals Odds: 1.62

Sources

- UEFA — 2026/27 Nations League League D fixtures - Malta FA — September/October provisional squad - MaltaFootball — final 26-player travelling group and absences - Getafe CF — Ian Olivera Andorra call-up

Sources & Data

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