UEFA Nations League DMatchday 1 — Group D2
Sep 24, 2026 · 20:45League local timeRheinpark Stadion
Liechtenstein
VS
Lithuania
Match Analysis

Liechtenstein vs Lithuania Prediction, Odds and Betting tips

Published: September 22, 2026Updated: September 22, 2026Our methodology

Liechtenstein vs Lithuania meet in UEFA Nations League D, Matchday 1 — Group D2 at Rheinpark Stadion on 2026-09-24 at 20:45. This preview reviews the statistical and form context behind the pick; the prediction and published odds are shown directly on the page.

Match Context

Competition
UEFA Nations League D
Round
Matchday 1 — Group D2
Date
2026-09-24
Local time
20:45
Venue
Rheinpark Stadion

Sources: UEFA — official 2026/27 Nations League fixtures; Lithuanian Football Federation

Liechtenstein vs Lithuania Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals Odds: 1.70

Competition: UEFA Nations League D · Date: 2026-09-24 · Kick-off: 20:45 CET · Round: Matchday 1 — Group D2 · Venue/location: Rheinpark Stadion, Vaduz

Liechtenstein host Lithuania at Rheinpark Stadion in Vaduz on September 24 in the opening match of Group D2. Lithuania, Azerbaijan and Liechtenstein make up the group, with only four league matches for each country. That format increases the value of avoiding an early defeat and can naturally encourage a more controlled first round.

Lithuania coach Edgaras Jankauskas selected 26 players. Džiugas Bartkus, Edvinas Gertmonas and Tomas Švedkauskas are the goalkeepers, while Edgaras Utkus, Justas Lasickas, Pijus Širvys, Kipras Kažukolovas and Artemijus Tutyškinas are among the defensive options. Gvidas Gineitis, Vykintas Slivka and Modestas Vorobjovas give the midfield an experienced base, with Armandas Kučys, Manfredas Ruzgis and Ignas Venckus listed as forwards.

A projected Lithuania XI is Edvinas Gertmonas; Justas Lasickas, Edgaras Utkus, Kipras Kažukolovas, Pijus Širvys; Gvidas Gineitis, Vykintas Slivka, Modestas Vorobjovas; Artūr Dolžnikov, Armandas Kučys, Faustas Steponavičius. The exact front line is the least certain area and should remain labelled as projected.

Liechtenstein's current pool includes Justin Ospelt, Gabriel Foser and Lorenzo Lo Russo in goal; Max Göppel, Lars Traber, Andreas Malin, Luca Beck and Jens Hofer in defence; Aron Sele, Livio Meier, Liam Kranz and Sandro Wolfinger among the midfield options; and Ferhat Saglam, Dennis Salanović, Villiam Pizzi, Fabio Luque-Notaro, Kenny Kindle and Emanuel Zünd in attack.

A projected Liechtenstein structure is Justin Ospelt; Lars Traber, Andreas Malin, Max Göppel; Sandro Wolfinger, Aron Sele, Livio Meier, Liam Kranz, Luca Beck; Dennis Salanović, Ferhat Saglam. Konrad Fünfstück has enough options to vary the shape, so this should not be treated as a confirmed XI.

The Under 2.5 market is built around game state rather than requiring either side to keep a clean sheet. Lithuania have the stronger individual midfield options and may control more possession, but Liechtenstein can prioritise compactness at home. A 1-0, 1-1 or 2-0 result all remain inside the selection.

Statistical coverage is partial: a complete 22/22 Statistical Core with comparable current-cycle HOME data for Liechtenstein and AWAY data for Lithuania, including xG, xGA, shots, shots on target, possession and corners, is unavailable in the cited material. Those metrics remain unavailable rather than being estimated.

Market price and value

At published odds of 1.70, the raw implied probability is 58.8%, calculated as 1 / 1.70 = 0.5882 before bookmaker margin. That is the market-price threshold, not a historical hit rate or a separate PSP probability forecast.

Conclusion

The prediction is Under 2.5 Goals at 1.70. The principal danger is an early goal forcing Liechtenstein to abandon a deeper structure and creating transition space for Lithuania.

Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals Odds: 1.70

Sources

- UEFA — official League D fixtures - Lithuanian Football Federation squad announcement, reported September 2026 - UEFA — Liechtenstein current squad list - ESPN — Liechtenstein vs Lithuania fixture

Sources & Data

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