International FriendliesInternational Friendly
Sep 26, 2026 · 19:00League local timeBMO Field
Canada
VS
Chile
Match Analysis

Canada vs Chile Prediction, Odds and Betting tips

Published: September 22, 2026Updated: September 22, 2026Our methodology

Canada vs Chile meet in International Friendlies, International Friendly at BMO Field on 2026-09-26 at 19:00. This preview reviews the statistical and form context behind the pick; the prediction and published odds are shown directly on the page.

Match Context

Competition
International Friendlies
Round
International Friendly
Date
2026-09-26
Local time
19:00
Venue
BMO Field

Sources: Canada Soccer — September/October 2026 squad; Canada Soccer — senior match schedule

Canada vs Chile Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

Prediction: Canada to Win Odds: 1.72

Competition: International Friendly · Date: 2026-09-26 · Kick-off: 19:00 ET · Round: International Friendly · Venue/location: BMO Field, Toronto

Canada host Chile at BMO Field in Toronto on September 26 at 7:00 p.m. ET in their first home match since the 2026 World Cup. Jesse Marsch's team reached the Round of 16 after recording the program's first World Cup point, first World Cup victory and first knockout-stage win, but the squad for this window has several meaningful changes from the tournament group.

The biggest absence is captain Alphonso Davies. Canada Soccer says he is unavailable because of his marriage and honeymoon, not because of a football injury. Goalkeeper Maxime Crépeau is unavailable for a personal matter. Other World Cup squad members not in this window include Moïse Bombito, Alistair Johnston, Joel Waterman, Ali Ahmed, Ismaël Koné, Jonathan Osorio and Jayden Nelson, who had replaced the injured Marcelo Flores before the tournament.

There is still substantial continuity. Dayne St. Clair and Owen Goodman remain goalkeeper options; Derek Cornelius, Luc de Fougerolles, Richie Laryea and Niko Sigur return in defence; Tajon Buchanan, Mathieu Choinière, Stephen Eustáquio, Liam Millar, Nathan Saliba and Jacob Shaffelburg remain available across midfield and wide areas; Jonathan David, Promise David, Cyle Larin and Tani Oluwaseyi all carry over from the World Cup attacking group. James Pantemis, Richard Chukwu, Jovan Ivanisevic, Ralph Priso, Jeevan Badwal, Junior Hoilett, Samuel Piette, Daniel Jebbison and Jacen Russell-Rowe add different options.

Current Canada call-up: Goalkeepers — Owen Goodman, James Pantemis, Dayne St. Clair. Defenders — Derek Cornelius, Richard Chukwu, Luc de Fougerolles, Alfie Jones, Jovan Ivanisevic, Richie Laryea, Ralph Priso, Niko Sigur. Midfielders — Jeevan Badwal, Tajon Buchanan, Mathieu Choinière, Stephen Eustáquio, Junior Hoilett, Liam Millar, Samuel Piette, Nathan Saliba, Jacob Shaffelburg. Forwards — Jonathan David, Promise David, Daniel Jebbison, Cyle Larin, Tani Oluwaseyi, Jacen Russell-Rowe.

A probable Canada XI is Dayne St. Clair; Richie Laryea, Derek Cornelius, Luc de Fougerolles, Niko Sigur; Stephen Eustáquio, Nathan Saliba; Tajon Buchanan, Jonathan David, Jacob Shaffelburg; Tani Oluwaseyi. The official XI is still pending. Davies' absence changes the left side from the World Cup structure, while the six-forward group gives Marsch several alternatives.

Chile did not qualify for the 2026 World Cup, so there is no Chile World Cup roster to use as a direct before-and-after baseline. Nicolás Córdova has selected 27 senior players for the North American tour and added Thomas Coulombe, Jetzen López and Zidane Yáñez as invited players.

Current Chile senior call-up: Goalkeepers — Lawrence Vigouroux, Brayan Cortés, Christian Bravo. Defenders — Francisco Salinas, Felipe Faúndez, Jonathan Villagra, Benjamín Kuscevic, Paulo Díaz, Iván Román, Marcelo Morales, Diego Ulloa, Gabriel Suazo. Midfielders — César Pérez, Víctor Méndez, Rodrigo Echeverría, Matías Sepúlveda, Felipe Loyola, Vicente Pizarro, Marcelino Núñez, Leandro Hernández, Agustín Arce. Forwards — Maximiliano Gutiérrez, Darío Osorio, Nils Reichmuth, Lucas Cepeda, Gonzalo Tapia, Ben Brereton. Invited — Thomas Coulombe, Jetzen López, Zidane Yáñez.

A probable Chile XI is Lawrence Vigouroux; Francisco Salinas, Paulo Díaz, Benjamín Kuscevic, Gabriel Suazo; Rodrigo Echeverría, Vicente Pizarro; Darío Osorio, Marcelino Núñez, Lucas Cepeda; Ben Brereton. It remains expected, not confirmed, because the staff has a broad touring group and three invited players.

Canada's strongest World Cup continuity is through Eustáquio, Buchanan and Jonathan David, while the largest structural question is how Marsch replaces Davies and manages the other absences. The expected game state has Eustáquio setting the central tempo, Buchanan driving at Chile's left side and David moving between the centre-backs, with Laryea and Sigur supplying width from deeper positions. Chile combine established internationals with development pieces after missing the World Cup and can threaten transitions through Osorio and Cepeda if Canada's full-backs advance together. The Toronto setting also matters: this is Canada's homecoming after its best World Cup campaign.

Statistical coverage is partial: a complete 22/22 Statistical Core with comparable current-cycle HOME data for Canada and AWAY data for Chile, including xG, xGA, shots, shots on target, possession and corners, is unavailable in the cited material. Those metrics remain unavailable rather than being estimated.

Market price and value

At published odds of 1.72, the raw implied probability is 58.1%, calculated as 1 / 1.72 = 0.5814 before bookmaker margin. That is the market-price threshold, not a historical hit rate or a separate PSP probability forecast.

Conclusion

The prediction is Canada to Win at 1.72. The case is built on the retained Canadian attacking and midfield core, home conditions and continuity under Marsch. The main risk is the absence of Davies, Crépeau and several other World Cup squad members, which means this should not be presented as the exact same Canada side seen during the tournament.

Prediction: Canada to Win Odds: 1.72

Sources

- Canada Soccer — September/October 2026 squad - Canada Soccer — May 29 World Cup squad - Canada Soccer — June 9 World Cup roster update - ANFP — Chile North America tour squad and schedule - FIFA — 2026 World Cup qualifying records

Sources & Data

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